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There’s More to a Bubble Than Rising Home Prices

by Christie Cannon

There’s More to a Bubble Than Rising Home Prices



What truly causes a housing bubble and the inevitable crash? For the best explanation, let’s go to a person who correctly called the last housing bubble – a year before it happened.

“A bubble requires both overvaluation based on fundamentals and speculation. It is natural to focus on an asset’s fundamental value, but the real key for detecting a bubble is speculation…Speculation tends to chase appreciating assets, and then speculation begets more speculation, until finally, for some reason that will become obvious to all in hindsight, the ‘bubble’ bursts.

I have taken to calling the housing market a ‘bubble’.”

– Bill McBride of Calculated Risk calling the bubble back in April 2005

Where do we stand today regarding speculation?

There are two measurements that are used to determine the speculation in a housing market:

1. The number of homes purchased by an investor and
2. The number of homes being flipped (resold within a twelve-month period)

As compared to 2005, investor purchases are down dramatically (from 23% to 13%) and so is flipping (from 8.2% to 5.7%). McBride explains:

“There is currently some flipping activity, but this is more the normal type of flipping (buy, improve and then sell). Back in 2005, people were just buying homes and letting them sit vacant – and then selling without significant improvements. Classic speculation.”

What are the experts saying about speculation in today’s market?

DSNews recently ran an article which asked two economists to compare the speculation in today’s market to that in 2005-2007. Here is what they said:

Dr. Eddie SeilerChief Housing Economist at Summit Consulting:

“The speculative ‘flipping mania’ of 2006 is absent from most metro areas.”

Tian LiuChief Economist of Genworth Mortgage Insurance:

“The nature of housing demand is different as well, with more potential homeowners and far fewer speculators in the housing market compared to the 2005-2007 period.”

And what does McBride, who called the last housing bubble, think about today’s real estate market?

Sixty days ago, he explained:

“In 2005, people were just buying homes and letting them sit vacant – and then selling without significant improvements. Classic speculation. And even more dangerous during the bubble was the excessive use of leverage (all those poor-quality loans). Currently lending standards are decent, and loan quality is excellent…

I wouldn’t call house prices a bubble – and I don’t expect house prices to decline nationally like during the bust.”

Bottom Line

Speculation is a major element of the housing bubble formula. Right now, there are not elevated percentages of investors and house flippers. Therefore, there is not an elevated rate of speculation.

 

Christie Cannon | REALTOR
The Cannon Team
Keller Williams Realty Frisco
469-951-9588
www.ChristieCannon.com

 

The Best Time of Year to Purchase?

by Christie Cannon

When is the Best Time to Buy a Home?

Finance news website, The Nerd Wallet, recently published an article extolling the virtues of purchasing your home in January!  So how, how does January really stack up as the best month to buy a home in Dallas?  

Based on the latest REALTOR.com reporting, the Dallas, TX market while down 2 spots, remains number 4 in the nation’s Hottest Real Estate Markets. 

Rank
(January)

20 Hottest Markets

Rank
(December)

Rank Change

1

San Francisco, CA

1

0

2

San Jose, CA

4

2

3

Vallejo, CA

3

0

4

Dallas, TX

2

-2

5

San Diego, CA

5

0

6

Sacramento, CA

9

3

7

Yuba City, CA

11

4

8

Denver, CO

6

-2

9

Stockton, CA

7

-2

10

Fesno, CA

13

3

11

Oxnard, CA

15

4

12

Columbus, OH

8

-4

13

Colorado Springs, CO

14

1

14

Nashville, TN

18

4

15

Detroit, MI

10

-5

16

Modesto, CA

20

4

17

Los Angeles, CA

17

0

18

Tampa, FL

23

5

19

Santa Rosa, CA

12

-7

20

Fort Wayne, IN

16

-4

Based on REALTOR.com’s 2014 & 2015 combined data, buyer’s typically pay a premium in summer & enjoy a dip in prices in the winter.  Their data estimates up to a 2% historical premium.  In a recent article in the Dallas Business Journal, Ted Wilson of Residential Strategies, offered that the data suggests that while the “Best Time” may not be restricted to one month, a great deal of data does suggest the early spring is a great time to be looking.  So what are some of the reasons that support buyers star their hunting season sooner rather than later?

  • Competition may be lower – According to NerdWallet, over the last 2-years, while the inventory may be down 21%, buyer traffic is down over 40%
  • Prices are expected to rise, especially in new homes
  • Mortgage rates are expected to rise – as interest rates rise, buying power decreases
So while "the best time to buyer" may not strictly be in January, certainly early spring has many factors that may support an early start to your home buying process!

For more information on Dallas Business Journal’s take on this subject, please click HERE.

CHRISTIE CANNON  REALTOR

The Christie Cannon Team

Keller Williams Frisco

469-951-9588: Mobile

 

Voted as one of the BEST Realtors in D Magazine for 2010-2016

Voted as a Five Star Professional 2012-2016 Texas Monthly Magazine

Name among America's Best Real Estate Agents by Real Trends Magazine

Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

#1 Keller Williams Agent 2011-2016

Top 100 Agents in the Nation / KW

 

4783 Preston Rd #300, Frisco, TX 75034

 

 

More Details on Legacy West in Plano

by Christie Cannon

As the first residents move in, Plano’s luxury multi-use development project at Legacy West. continues to announce some amazing shopping & restaurants.

With over 5,000 parking spaces, 425,000 SqFt of retail, hotels, apartments, residential luxury tower - the Windrose Tower, & the Villas at Legacy West with Britton Homes, Legacy West is on track to be the largest mixed use development in North Texas – as such, we anxiously have awaited to hear who will be joining the project!  When the March 2nd Grand Opening occurs, what can we expect – see the below list for retailers & restaurants!  Click HERE for the latest Dallas News article on Legacy West's offerings!

Dallas Area Among Highest Year Over Year Appreciation

by Christie Cannon

Dallas joins Portland and Seattle as the highest of the year-over-year appreciation in home values for the first 10 months on 2016, according to CaseLogic – Zillow.com’s parent company.

The city is also among seven cities whose current pre-owned single-family homes have surpassed their pre-recession peak.  According to Case-Shiller, since mid-2007, the national “peak”, DFW area homes are up a whopping 30%!

Tis the season when the agents of The Christie Cannon Team offers up our best nod to Clark W. Griswold with the best of Christmas & Holiday Lights in North TX.

While our father's may have "taught us everything we know about exterior illumination," we are not above some advice, so please help us make a great list with your comments & suggestions!

 

  • Frisco Square - Drawing over 675,000 visitors seasonally, Frisco Square offers North TX largest choreographed light display!  Boasting snow machines, sled riding events, horse drawn carriage rides, light & music shows, outdoor ice skating & even a parachuting Santa - this place has it all!  Starts Nov 25th
  • Highland Park & Highland Park Village - What can I say?  Gorgeous architecture complemented by professional Christmas lighting.  Spanning about 20 blocks, this is the perfect time to splurge on a horse drawn carriage ride.
  • SMU's Annual Celebration of Lights -  Another long-time tradition & boasting over 100,000 lights. Starts Nov 28th
  • Deerfield, Plano - Starting (officially) on December 1st, this quintessential Plano neighborhood is jammed packed with gorgeous home competing for the best, funniest, & most traditional displays.  Check out their website for best routes, carriage ride info, & even segway tours!
  • Prairie Lights - Growing larger each year, this Grand Prairie display is located in Lynn Creek Park and has become a destination in its own right.  Offering a 2-mile path of lights, a laser light display, holiday village, & more.  Be sure to check out their website as there are costs for this one!
  • Interlochen in Arlington - A North TX original, this community has been wowing light viewers for over 40-years!
  • Tour of Lights in Farmers Branch - over 500,00 twinkle lights will delight.  This is any easy one for those who like to stay in the car.
  • Vitruvian Lights in Addison - Located in Vitruvian park, this one excites with food trucks, FREE photos with Santa & Reindeer, Holiday Village, & Free Concerts in the park!
  • Texas Motor Speedway - Supporting Toys for Tots, this huge display boasts a drive-thru display & Santa's Village.  Be sure to check out the website for pricing!
  • ICE & the Gaylord Texan Resort - Ice skating, gingerbread house building, sled riding, Santa photos, Holiday village, light displays, 2+ million pounds of ice, what do they not have?
  • The Pharrs in Farmers Branch - Located at 14535 Southern Pines Cove, this family has been celebrating Christmas in a big way & share their joy from their own front lawn!
  • The Trains at North Park - OK - two warning are required, they are not technically lights... but I still feel nostalgia for making the trip to the city to watch the trains at Christmas.  The second warning, watch out for the shopping at this one!
  • Dallas Children's Holiday Parade - Again, not technically lights, but come-on, its a parade - what Grinch doesn't like a parade?  This one has been going on since 1987 & frankly doesn't get its due!
  • The Krampus Walk - Hey, it can't all be about the kiddo's.  This what happens when you have a much "hipper" brother & sister-in-law who are not in "the 'burbs" - you learn about the Krampus pub crawl... I mean "walk" through Deep Ellum.
  • Christmas in the Stockyards in Fort Worth - Hey, its TX - we need a Christmas Cattle Drive to go along with our caroling & the Stockyards is the place to see it.  On December 12 the Snowball Express will be welcomed at the Stockyards with the Walk of Gratitude.  For those not in the know - the Snowball Express is a charity that supports & honors the children of men & women who have fallen in service to our great nation.

Have some ideas & comments that will help our list?  We would love to hear from you! 

Thank you & we wish you a very Merry Christmas & Happy Holiday Season!

 

 

Christie Cannon  REALTOR

The Christie Cannon Team

Keller Williams Frisco TX

469.951.9588: Mobile

972.215.7747: Office


Voted as one of the BEST Realtors in D Magazine for 2010-2016

Voted as a Five Star Professional 2012-2016 Texas Monthly Magazine

Named among America's Best Real Estate Agents by Real Trends Magazine

Named among the Top 250 Real Estate Teams in the Nation, as seen The Wall Street Journal

Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist

Global Property Specialist - Marketing with a Gloabal Reach

#1 Keller Williams Agent 2011-2015

Top 50 Agents with KW Realty International

 

 


Thank you Texas Monthly Magazine - 5 Star Professional Award

by Christie Cannon

Thank you to our wonderful clients, awesome staff, & buyer agents for their part in The Christie Cannon Team being selected again as a 5-Star Professional & featured in Texas Monthly Magazine for the 3rd year in a row!  I truly appreciate the confidence our clients place in us and am thrilled by the dedication of my staff & team in ensuring that we continue to provide the highest level of service.

- Christie Cannon - 469-951-9588  - www.christiecannon.com - 

Insights from Highland Homes' VP of Market Trends

by Christie Cannon

Recently, Highland Homes' blog featured a Q&A with Highland's VP of Architecture & Market Trends, Gonzalo Romero (with whom my clients & I have had the pleasure of working).  It offers an interesting insight in to the latest trends & designs in new home constructions.  

You can find Mr Romero's comments & thoughts herehttp://blog.highlandhomes.com/category/q-architecture

- thanks, Christie Cannon

Tis the Season - for Protesting your Property Tax Value

by Christie Cannon

The season is almost upon us.... property tax protest season!  So what do you do when that envelope arrives & your value went sky high?  You do have the opportunity & option to contest/protest your tax value.  Despite what some may lead you to believe, it is not a terribly difficult process.

While counties do have variations, tax protests start about May 1st.  While most counties offer easy steps & explanations to the process, the how & why a value was derived still leaves many of us wondering.  

Once again Texas A&M's Real Estate Center  has come to the rescue in this month's Tierra Grande, offering a wonderful article on the detai ls of the Property Tax Protest & Appeal!

You can find the article on their website - http://recenter.tamu.edu/pdf/2062.pdf

Need help or have questions about the comps for your home (from Jan 1st time)? - please feel free to give me a call...

- Christie Cannon

What's up in Frisco ?!? - Frisco EDC Update

by Christie Cannon

The Frisco Economic Development Council -http://www.friscoedc.com/ - offered a wonderful presentation to the Heritage Green HOA earlier this month.

For anyone getting to know Frisco - or just looking for an update on the information that you have, it is a great place to start!

You can find their presentation here - Heritage Green HOA - Frisco EDC - it is an excellent source of some of the newest developments, demographics, & growth!

Thanks - Christie Cannon - 469-951-9588

Frisco Family Services Gala - Reminder!

by Christie Cannon

Frisco Family Services 2014 Gala -This Weekend! 

Information for this awesome event can be found here!

 

Displaying blog entries 1-10 of 11

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Photo of Christie Cannon Real Estate
Christie Cannon
Keller Williams Realty
4783 Preston Road #300
Frisco TX 75034
972-215-7747
Fax: 214-853-4774
Keller Williams Frisco - The Christie Cannon Team - http://www.christiecannon.com

 

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