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Home Builders Ramp Up Construction Based on Demand

by Christie Cannon

Home Builders Ramp Up Construction Based on Demand

Home Builders Ramp Up Construction Based on Demand | MyKCM
 

If you’re thinking of buying a home, there really is no time like the present. With today’s low mortgage rates, you have a great opportunity to get more home for your money. The challenge is inventory. Like you, many buyers want to capitalize on these market conditions, and it’s leading to more buyer competition and bidding wars.

If you’re having a hard time finding a home to buy, it may be time to talk to your trusted real estate advisor about a newly built home. Early indicators show new-home construction is beginning to ramp up. While new homes alone won’t be able to fix all of the inventory challenges, this does mean you’ll soon have more options as you search for a home. As a buyer, a newly built home may be exactly what you’re looking for – it’s brand new, and with builder customization options, it’s uniquely yours from the ground up.

Here’s what industry experts are saying about new homes coming to market:

Nadia Evangelou, Senior Economist and Director of Forecasting at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says recent research could indicate upward momentum when it comes to new home construction. Evangelou refers to the volume of new homes where construction began during a set period, known in the industry as housing starts.

According to that research, housing starts reached their highest level since 2006 in March of this year – an encouraging sign for the industry. While they dipped slightly in April, Evangelou reiterates that the level of housing construction is heading in a positive direction compared to recent years:

“…we are currently building 24% more homes than we typically have built in April in the last couple of decades. Thus, housing construction is trending upward with housing starts likely to reach 1.6 million for all of 2021 and rise further to 1.7 million in 2022.”

As new data pours in, it further confirms this trend. According to the latest Monthly New Residential Construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau, housing starts increased even more in May, which continues the ongoing upward trend (see graph below) and indicates that ground is being broken on even more new homes.Home Builders Ramp Up Construction Based on Demand | MyKCMRobert Dietz, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Economics and Housing Policy for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), singles out another encouraging sign:

“It is also worth noting that the number of single-family homes permitted but not started construction continued to increase in May, rising to 142,000 units.”

This insight that there’s also an uptick in single-family homes permitted serves as an additional sign that more new homes lie ahead. It’s important to realize that the construction doesn’t have to start on these homes before you may be able to purchase one. According to the Monthly New Residential Sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, many new homes are selling before construction even begins (see graph below):Home Builders Ramp Up Construction Based on Demand | MyKCMThese signs are all good news for housing inventory. And as the recent challenges of rising lumber prices and dwindling lumber supply begin to improve, builders will be able to increase their production even more in the months ahead.

Bottom Line

While the inventory challenges we’re facing today won’t be solved overnight, the increase in new-home construction means your house may have more competition in the market. Let’s connect to talk about finding your dream home and the newly built homes available in our area.

Patience Is the Key to Buying a Home This Year

by Christie Cannon

Patience Is the Key to Buying a Home This Year

Patience Is the Key to Buying a Home This Year | MyKCM
 

The question many homebuyers are facing this year is, “Why is it so hard to find a house?” We’re in the ultimate sellers’ market, which means real estate is ultra-competitive for buyers right now. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) notes homes are getting an average of 4.8 offers per sale, and that number keeps rising. Why? It’s because there are so few houses for sale.

Low inventory in the housing market isn’t new, but it’s becoming more challenging to navigate. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.comexplains:

The housing market is still relatively under supplied, and buyers can’t buy what’s not for sale. Relative to what we saw in 2017 to 2019, March 2021 was still roughly 117,000 new listings lower, adding to the pre-existing early-year gap of more than 200,000 fresh listings that would typically have come to market in January or February. Despite this week’s gain from a year ago, we’re 19 percent below the new seller activity that we saw in the same week in 2019.

While many homeowners paused their plans to sell during the height of the pandemic, this isn’t the main cause of today’s huge gap between supply and demand. Sam Khater, Vice President and Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, Economic Housing and Research Division, shares:

The main driver of the housing shortfall has been the long-term decline in the construction of single-family homes . . . That decline has resulted in the decrease in supply of entry-level single-family homes or, ’starter homes.’”

When you consider the number of homes built in the U.S. by decade, the serious lack of new construction is clear (See graph below):Patience Is the Key to Buying a Home This Year | MyKCMThe number of newly built homes is disproportionately lower than the rate of household formation, which, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, has continued to increase. Khater also explains:

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic and current recession, the housing market was facing a substantial supply shortage and that deficit has grown. In 2018, we estimated that there was a housing supply shortage of approximately 2.5 million units, meaning that the U.S. economy was about 2.5 million units below what was needed to match long-term demand. Using the same methodology, we estimate that the housing shortage increased to 3.8 million units by the end of 2020. A continued increase in a housing shortage is extremely unusual; typically in a recession, housing demand declines and supply rises, causing inventory to rise above the long-term trend.”

To catch up to current demand, Freddie Mac estimates we need to build almost four million homes. The good news is builders are working hard to get us there. The U.S. Census Bureau also states:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,766,000. This is 2.7 percent (±1.7 percent) above the revised February rate of 1,720,000 . . . Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,739,000. This is 19.4 percent (±13.7 percent) above the revised February estimate of 1,457,000. . . .”

What does this mean? Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, clarifies:

The March figure of 1.74 million housing starts is the highest in 14 years. Both single-family units and multifamily units ramped up. After 13 straight years of underproduction – the chief cause for today’s inventory shortage – this construction boom needs to last for at least three years to make up for the part shortfall. As trade-up buyers purchase newly constructed homes, their prior homes will show up in MLSs, and hence, more choices for consumers. Housing starts to housing completion could be 4 to 8 months, so be patient with the improvement to inventory. In the meantime, construction workers deserve cheers.

Bottom Line

If you’re planning to buy this year, the key to success will be patience, given today’s low inventory environment. Let’s connect today to talk more about what’s happening in our area.

Developer of Frisco's $2 billion Wade Park is Out of the Deal!

by Christie Cannon

 

 

A New York-based lender that took control of one of Frisco's highest-profile properties says it's slowly moving forward with plans for the huge project.

But original owner Thomas Land & Development won't be part of the Wade Park development, according to officials with Gamma Real Estate, which loaned $150 million on the Wade Park site.

"After he was in default on the loan from Gamma Real Estate for more than a year, Stan Thomas' entity conveyed the property by deed in lieu of foreclosure," said Gamma Real Estate president Jonathan Kalikow. "Stan Thomas has no remaining interest in Wade Park."

Kalikow said his firm has been working to revive the 175-acre development on the Dallas North Tollway.

It's been more than two years since work halted on the $2 billion project that was planned to include high-rise offices, hotels, apartments and retail space.

Ground was broken for high-rise mixed-use development in 2014, with the first phase of construction scheduled to open in 2016. But the project ran into delays and finally ground to a halt.

Since 2017, the prominent Frisco property has sat with a big hole in the ground and a few half-finished buildings. In February, ownership of the property changed to a new partnership.

But Atlanta-based developer Thomas said he's continued to work on resurrecting the deal.

"We are real, real close," Thomas said this week. "Hopefully I can tell you something in the next week or two."

Kalikow said the Wade Park development will no longer include Thomas Land & Development.

"We are in the process of determining the best path forward," Kalikow said. "It is not a path that includes Stan Thomas. We have been in communication with Frisco. Things are in progress."

Real estate brokers and developers say that representatives have quietly shopped the Wade Park property around to see if another builder or investor would like a crack at the deal.

Wade Park was once the biggest part of Frisco's highly touted $5 billion mile.

While other major developments nearby — including the Dallas Cowboys' Star complex, Frisco Station and The Gate — have moved ahead with construction, Wade Park has been stalled.

Kalikow said Gamma Real Estate is still committed to the project, which is considered one of Frisco's most prime properties.

"Absolutely," he said. "We want to have all our ducks in a row."

Frisco officials say they are talking with the firm.

"We're very encouraged to learn Wade Park has a new property owner," Frisco Mayor Jeff Cheney said in a statement. "During the first week in August, city staff met face-to-face with Gamma Real Estate executives, who are representatives of the new owner, stating they're committed to cleaning up the property and ensuring the site is secure. 

"The Gamma team also tells us they're working with potential developers," Cheney said. "This property is in a prime location and we're hopeful Gamma Real Estate will be successful in securing a new developer who will transform the area to its fullest potential."

 

ARTICLE PROVIDED BY: THE DALLAS MORNING NEWS

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Christie Cannon
Keller Williams Realty
5933 Preston Road #300
Frisco TX 75034
972-215-7747
Fax: 972-215-7748
Keller Williams Frisco - The Christie Cannon Team - http://www.christiecannon.com