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How Does the supply of homes for Sale Impact Buyer Demand?

by Christie Cannon

How Does the Supply of Homes for Sale Impact Buyer Demand?

How Does the Supply of Homes for Sale Impact Buyer Demand? | MyKCM
 

The price of any item is determined by supply, as well as the market’s demand for the item. The National Association of REALTORS (NAR) surveys “over 50,000 real estate practitioners about their expectations for home sales, prices and market conditions” for their monthly REALTORS Confidence Index.

Their latest edition sheds some light on the relationship between seller traffic (supply) and buyer traffic (demand).

Buyer Demand

The map below was created after asking the question: “How would you rate buyer traffic in your area?”How Does the Supply of Homes for Sale Impact Buyer Demand? | MyKCMThe darker the blue, the stronger the demand for homes is in that area. The survey shows that in 3 of the 50 U.S. states, buyer demand is now very strong; only 2 of the 50 states have a ‘weak’ demand. Overall, buyer demand is slightly lower than this time last year but remains strong.

Seller Supply 

The index also asked: “How would you rate seller traffic in your area?”How Does the Supply of Homes for Sale Impact Buyer Demand? | MyKCMAs the map below shows, 18 states reported ‘weak’ seller traffic, 29 states and Washington, D.C. reported ‘stable’ seller traffic, and 3 states reported ‘strong’ seller traffic. This means there are far fewer homes on the market than what is needed to satisfy the buyers who are looking for homes.

Bottom Line

Looking at the maps above, it is not hard to see why prices are appreciating in many areas of the country. Until the supply of homes for sale starts to meet buyer demand, prices will continue to increase. If you are debating listing your home for sale, let’s get together to help you capitalize on the demand in our market now.

4 Reasons To Sell This Fall!

by Christie Cannon

4 Reasons to Sell This Fall 

4 Reasons to Sell This Fall [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM
 

Some Highlights:

  • Buyers are active in the market and often competing with one another for available listings.
  • Housing inventory is still under the 6-month supply found in a normal housing market.
  • Homes are still selling relatively quickly, averaging 31 days on the market.

The District Concert Series!

by Christie Cannon

The Christie Cannon Team is proudly sponsoring The District Concert Series!  Join us every Friday evening in October for some music, food and fun!  Located at The Shops at Willowbend, The District hosted it's first concert series last year!  See the flyer below to see the line up.

Contact us at 972-215-7747 if you have any questions!  We can't wait to see you there!

 

Dallas Market Has Cooled Off. Don’t Panic.

by Christie Cannon

The Dallas Real Estate Dallas Market Has Cooled Off. Don’t Panic.

Can you say “reversion to the norm”?

 

Mike and Tracy Voegtle are not getting back into the Dallas housing market anytime soon. Who can blame them? It took months of constant searching for the couple to find their Far North Dallas home back in 2013. That year, the local residential property market was the hottest it had ever been. Cash offers were being made for homes all over the area. Prices soared higher by the day. Supply was limited. Demand seemed endless.

That meant the Voegtles had to drag their three boys to multiple open houses on the weekends and face disappointment as they lost out on the first six houses they bid on. Finally, they landed a four-bedroom, four-bath place near Brentfield Elementary.

As the Dallas housing market has stayed hot in the years since, the Voegtles’ house has appreciated significantly, even though the only major change they have made was putting in a pool. But something else has changed in the Voegtles’ neighborhood. “For Sale” signs are standing on lawns a lot longer than they used to.

“The housing market around us feels like it is slowing down a bit,” says Mike, an architect with Dallas’ 5G Studio. “We’re seeing houses sitting on the market for a long time now, for months, even. That didn’t happen a few years ago.”

In fact, the average days on the market for a house in North Texas is now 53—the highest it has been since the Voegtles bought theirs. That’s just one of the many signs that the once white-hot Dallas housing market has finally begun to cool down.

state of Dallas real estate market

Strength in the Numbers

Don’t panic. This is not a bust. It is not a crash. If you are a homeowner in the Dallas area, you will not have to start making your belt out of cardboard. Prices overall are still increasing. First-quarter home prices in North Texas increased 1.4 percent over their level in 2018, according to the National Association of Realtors.

That was the smallest price gain in the area since 2011. In 2011, the median home price in North Texas was $150,000. Today, it is $254,300. So if area price increases have slowed, does that mean that $254,300 is something like the top of what has been a huge upward sales market here?

Not according to Zillow. It’s dubbed the Dallas market “cool,” but it’s also calling for a 7.5 percent rise in the median home price this year. That’s only half the 14.2 percent rise last year. But it still means the market is on an upward trajectory.

The reason for that is simple. There are jobs here, and tens of thousands of people are still moving to this area looking to land those jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says 102,500 new jobs were created here in 2018. That helped cut the local unemployment rate to 3.3 percent as this story was going to print—lower than the 3.9 percent national average. There are 3.7 million people in this area going to work every day now.

Some of those people are new. About 130,000 people moved into the Dallas and Fort Worth area just last year alone. Some experts figure that about a third of those people want to buy a house. That’s a lot of new demand on top of whatever demand already existed before those 40,000 people dropped into this market.

The bottom line? “Home prices this year will still probably go up in Dallas-Fort Worth,” says Jim Gaines, chief economist at the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “But they’re not going up as fast. In economics terms, we call what is happening a ‘reversion to norm.’ The market is going back to its normal pace of activity. Instead of being in a state of exuberance where prices go up 10 percent annually, they’ll return to going up 3 or 4 percent.”

For homeowners, it seems like good news that the demand is still out there and prices are still climbing. But, then, what’s the deal with those lingering “For Sale” signs in Mike Voegtle’s neighborhood?

Price Fatigue

As every Econ 101 student knows (or ought to know), when demand is high and supply is low—both phrases describe the overall North Texas housing market—prices go up. And, sure enough, whether you ask Zillow or the National Association of Realtors or just about anyone else, prices here are continuing to rise.

Don’t panic. This is not a bust. It is not a crash.

Sales, however, are not really going up. In January there were about 15,254 homes listed for sale in a part of the Dallas area that includes Plano and many other northern communities and Irving and other western cities. In April there were about 18,012 homes listed. That, in real estate agent-speak, is about three months of inventory, meaning that, if no new houses were listed for sale for the next three months, the existing level of demand would consume all the current listings and there’d be no more homes left to buy here. There are, of course, new listings coming online all the time—both for new homes and existing homes. Dallas leads the nation in number of new homes under construction. In 2018, construction began on 34,523 new homes here, up almost 3 percent from the year before. Houston ranked second to Dallas with 30,206. No other city reached 30,000 “home starts,” as they’re called.

Even so, Dallas still has only about three months of inventory on hand, well down from levels seen earlier this decade. Said in fewer words: supply is tight. Demand is high. So why are sales flat and why are price increases slowing? Many experts offer the same explanation: the prices are too damn high.

“There has been some price fatigue,” Gaines says. “People are looking at what they’re being asked to pay and there’s a little more resistance from buyers. If they’re not getting exactly what they want, they’re not buying it at all.”

Little wonder, then, that 61 percent of Dallas-area residents (an increasing number of whom are young people in the early phases of their careers) are now renters and not owners.

Jeff Duffey, who runs Jeff Duffey & Associates, a real estate firm that handles both existing and new home sales in Dallas, thinks that too many sellers believe Dallas is experiencing a boom market that gives them total control over pricing. “For example,” he says, “two to three years ago, it was hard to find many homes in North Dallas that were listed between $400,000 and $600,000. Now I can show someone homes for five straight weekends and still not go through all of the active listings in that price range. Sellers who have overpriced their homes or who think they don’t need to go through the trouble to fix up their homes for sale are watching their properties sit on the market. Buyers don’t want those homes and they don’t need them.”

But some potential buyers may also simply not be able to afford what’s on the market in many neighborhoods. Since 2012, prices in the Dallas market are up more than 60 percent. Fitch Ratings, a credit analysis firm, says the Dallas market is one of the more overvalued in the country and that prices are 15 percent higher than what they should be based on the growth of the area’s population, income, and average rental prices. The median income in North Texas has gone up a lot in the last 10 years, jumping from $58,025 to $67,382. That’s 16 percent. Median home prices in the same time period are up 70 percent.

“There are a whole bunch of houses now that are priced in higher price points—price points that a lot of people can’t afford,” says Paige Shipp, regional director in Dallas-Fort Worth for Metrostudy, a real estate research firm.

The National Association of Home Builders has crunched numbers that tell the same story on affordability here. The NAHB puts together a quarterly Housing Opportunity Index—a ranking of the percentage of total homes for sale that are considered affordable to the typical family. In Dallas a decade ago, the NAHB’s Index found that 75.7 percent of the homes were affordable. That rating increased a year later, peaking at 79.9 percent in the first quarter of 2010. But it has fallen sharply in recent years, sinking to just 45.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018, then rebounding slightly to 52.4 percent in the first quarter of this year.

Affordability isn’t just a problem in Dallas. It’s a major issue in many big markets today, like San Francisco. Still, the national affordability index average is 61 percent—higher than overall affordability in Dallas.

Builders have started to address buyer concerns about affordability by hanging drywall on thousands of new homes priced between $250,000 and $350,000. Metrostudy says one-quarter of all new home construction in the area is in that price range. A handful of those homes are townhouses located in Dallas. But most are more traditional single-family houses in communities far from the center city, with price points in the $250,000 to $350,000 range.

Examples include Sandbrock Ranch in Aubrey and Union Park in Little Elm—new developments popping up around U.S. 380 in Denton County. “Highway 380 is hot as a firecracker,” says Bill Shaddock, a partner in Shaddock Development Co. and CEO/owner of Capital Title of Texas.

For those who aren’t interested in seeing the pop of that affordable, exurban firecracker—and all the issues of sprawl that go with it—the Dallas area still has plenty to offer buyers and sellers, even as the market reverts to some of its former norms. “This is the first time in my career I’ve been able to say to my sellers that if they do certain things to their homes and are careful with how they price it, they will absolutely sell the home in a week,” Duffey says. “That’s not a guarantee real estate agents are normally willing to make, but I know that the buyers are still out there, and they’re ready to make a deal.”

SOLD!

Here are the hottest and nottest places in North Texas, based on change in median prices.

It's Not 2008

by Christie Cannon

Everybody Calm Down! This Is NOT 2008

Everybody Calm Down! This Is NOT 2008 | MyKCM
 

Last week realtor.com released the results of a survey that produced three major revelations:

  1. 53% of home purchasers (first-time and repeat buyers) currently in the market believe a recession will occur this year or next.
  2. 57% believe the next recession will be as bad or worse than 2008.
  3. 55% said they would cancel plans to move if a recession occurred.

Since we are currently experiencing the longest-ever economic expansion in American history, there is reason to believe a recession could occur in the not-too-distant future. And, it does make sense that buyers and sellers remember the horrors of 2008 when they hear the word “recession.”

Ali Wolf, Director of Economic Research at the real estate consulting firm Meyers Research, addressed this point in a recent interview:

“With people having PTSD from the last time, they’re still afraid of buying at the wrong time.”

Most experts, however, believe if there is a recession, it will not resemble 2008. This housing market is in no way the same as it was just over a decade ago.

Zillow Economist, Jeff Tucker, explained the difference in a recent article, Recessions Typically Have Limited Effect on the Housing Market:

 “As we look ahead to the next recession, it's important to recognize how unusual the conditions were that caused the last one, and what's different about the housing market today. Rather than abundant homes, we have a shortage of new home supply. Rather than risky borrowers taking on adjustable-rate mortgages, we have buyers with sterling credit scores taking out predictable 30-year fixed-rate mortgages. The housing market is simply much less risky than it was 15 years ago."

George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, also weighed in on the subject:

“This is going to be a much shorter recession than the last one, I don't think the next recession will be a repeat of 2008...The housing market is in a better position.”

In the past 23 years, there have been two national recessions – the dot-com crash in 2001 and the Great Recession in 2008. It is true that home values fell 19.7% during the 2008 recession, which was caused by a mortgage meltdown that heavily impacted the housing market. However, while stock prices fell almost 25% in 2001, home values appreciated 6.6%. The triggers of the next recession will more closely mirror those from 2001 – not those from 2008.

Bottom Line

No one can accurately predict when the next recession will occur, but expecting one could possibly take place in the next 18-24 months is understandable. It is, however, important to realize that the impact of a recession on the housing market will in no way resemble 2008.

DFW Has Half of the Top 10 BEST U.S. Home Markets

by Christie Cannon

D-FW has half of the top 10 best U.S. home markets, including Frisco, Denton and McKinney

Frisco, Denton, McKinney, Carrollton and Allen were ranked among the best U.S. real estate markets by WalletHub.

That's what researchers who prepared the 2019 Best Real Estate Markets report for personal finance website WalletHub found when they did their  annual survey.

Frisco, Denton, McKinney, Carrollton and Allen were all in the top 10 ranking for the nation's hottest home markets.

The scorecard ranked cities across the U.S. for everything from median home price appreciation to home sales turnover rate to job growth.

Frisco ranked second just behind Boise, Idaho, according to the recently released report.

 

Denton came in at fifth place, and McKinney and Carrollton were number six and seven on the list.

Allen was number nine.

Diving deeper into the data, Austin (No. 12) and Fort Worth (No. 13) were in the top 20.

Dallas came in at 112 — not exactly bragging rights.

"For this report, we compared 300 cities of different sizes," WalletHub's Diana Polk said in an email. "We selected the cities based on availability of data, and it makes sense that bigger states, as is Texas, would have more cities present in our ranking."

Other high-rated home markets this year were Overland Park, Kan.; Cary, N.C.; and Fort Wayne, Ind.

Newark, N.J.,and Detroit were rated the worst.

SOURCE: WalletHub

Article Provided By: Dallas Morning News

Homeownership Will ALWAYS Be The American Dream

by Christie Cannon

Homeownership Will Always Be a Part of the American Dream

Homeownership Will Always Be a Part of the American Dream | MyKCM
 

On Labor Day we celebrate the hard work that helps us achieve the American Dream.

Growing up, many of us thought about our future lives with great ambition. We drew pictures of what jobs we wanted to have and where we would live as a representation of a secure life for ourselves and our families. Today we celebrate the workers that make this country a place where those dreams can become a reality.

According to Wikipedia,

Labor Day honors the American labor movement and the contributions that workers have made to the development, growth, endurance, strength, security, prosperity, productivity, laws, sustainability, persistence, structure, and well-being of the country.”

The hard work that happens every day across this country allows so many to achieve the American Dream. The 2019 Aspiring Home Buyers Profile by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) says,

“Approximately 75% of non-homeowners believe homeownership is part of their American Dream, while 9 in 10 current homeowners said the same.”

Looking at the number of non-owners, you may wonder, ‘If they believe in homeownership, why haven’t they bought a home yet?’. Well, increasing home prices and low inventory can be part of the reason why some haven’t jumped in, but that does not mean there is a lack of interest. The same report shows the increase in the desire to buy in the last year (as shown in the graph below):Homeownership Will Always Be a Part of the American Dream | MyKCMAs we can see, there are more and more people each quarter who want to buy a home. The good news is, as more inventory comes to the market, more non-homeowners will be able to fulfill their dreams. Finally, they’ll be able to move into that home they drew when they were little kids!

Bottom Line

If you’re a homeowner considering selling, this fall might be the right time, as there are buyers in the market ready to buy. Let’s get together to determine how you can benefit from the pent-up housing demand.

Moving with Kids...

by Christie Cannon

Top Priorities When Moving with Kids

Top Priorities When Moving with Kids | MyKCM
 

According to the Pew Research Center, around 37% of U.S students will be going back to school soon and the rest have already started the new academic year. With school-aged children in your home, buying or selling a house can take on a whole different approach when it comes to finding the right size, location, school district, and more.

Recently, the 2019 Moving with Kids Report from the National Association of Realtors®(NAR) studied “the different purchasing habits as well as seller preferences during the home buying and selling process.” This is what they found:

When Purchasing a Home

The major difference between the homebuyers who have children and those who do not is the importance of the neighborhood. In fact, 53% said the quality of the school district is an important factor when purchasing a home, and 50% select neighborhoods by the convenience to the schools.

Buyers with children also purchase larger, detached single-family homes with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms at approximately 2,110 square feet.

Furthermore, 26% noted how childcare expenses delayed the home-buying process and forced additional compromises: 31% in the size of the home, 24% in the price, and 18% in the distance from work.

When Selling a Home

Of those polled, 23% of buyers with children sold their home "very urgently," and 46% indicated "somewhat urgently, within a reasonable time frame." Selling with urgency can pressure sellers to accept offers that are not in their favor. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR explains,

“When buying or selling a home, exercising patience is beneficial, but in some cases – such as facing an upcoming school year or the outgrowing of a home – sellers find themselves rushed and forced to accept a less than ideal offer.”

For sellers with children, 21% want a real estate professional to help them sell the home within a specific time frame, 20% at a competitive price, and 19% to market their home to potential buyers.

Bottom Line

Buying or selling a home can be driven by different priorities when you are also raising a family. If you’re a seller with children and looking to relocate, let’s get together to navigate the process in the most reasonable time frame for you and your family.

A Latte A Day...

by Christie Cannon

 

A Latte a Day Keeps Homeownership Away [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM
 

Some Highlights:

  • The pumpkin spice latte is launching soon, so you may be tempted to spend your extra cash on a daily caffeine fix, but that small expense can add up to a big number – fast!
  • Saving for a down payment takes a little discipline, so limiting your extra purchases (like a latte a day from your favorite coffee shop) will help you get there faster.
  • Depending on where you live, putting away just a small amount each day will get you to the average down payment you may need for homeownership faster than you think.

Increase Your Family's Net Worth

by Christie Cannon

A Great Way to Increase Your Family’s Net Worth

A Great Way to Increase Your Family’s Net Worth | MyKCM
 

Every three years, the Federal Reserve conducts its Survey of Consumer Finances. Data is collected across all economic and social groups. The latest survey data covers 2013-2016.

The study revealed that the median net worth of a homeowner is $231,400 – a 15% increase since 2013. At the same time, the median net worth of renters decreased by 5% ($5,200 today compared to $5,500 in 2013).

These numbers reveal that the net worth of a homeowner is over 44 times greater than that of a renter.

Owning a home is a great way to build family wealth.

As we’ve said before, simply put, homeownership is a form of ‘forced savings.’ Every time you pay your mortgage, you are contributing to your net worth by increasing the equity in your home.

That is why Gallup reported Americans picked real estate as the best long-term investment for the sixth year in a row. According to this year’s results, 35% of Americans chose real estate. Stocks followed at 27%, then savings accounts and gold.

Bottom Line

If you want to find out how you can use your monthly housing cost to increase your family’s wealth, let’s get together to help you through the process.

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Photo of Christie Cannon Real Estate
Christie Cannon
Keller Williams Realty
5933 Preston Road #300
Frisco TX 75034
972-215-7747
Fax: 972-215-7748
Keller Williams Frisco - The Christie Cannon Team - http://www.christiecannon.com