By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News

The latest home price risk forecast shows that Dallas-Fort Worth is overall the safest place in the country for stable home values.

The latest report by mortgage insurance company PMI Group ranked the D-FW area dead last among the 50 cities it rates for possible declines in home prices.

That means PMI is betting there is less than a 1 percent chance that average home prices here will be lower two years from now.

PMI's summer 2008 risk ranking for D-FW is similar to the insurance company's previous studies.

As in other PMI reports, the U.S. cities with the biggest run-up in home prices in recent years are at the greatest risk for losses.

During the last year, some markets have seen a significant increase in the number of existing single-family homes for sale, PMI chief economist David Berson said in the report.

"Given the magnitude of the inventory overhang, we expect national home price declines to continue into at least 2009," Mr. Berson said.

In North Texas, however, the number of pre-owned homes listed for sale has declined during the last year.

Although PMI Group's report about D-FW home prices should be encouraging, Mr. Berson said that doesn't mean there won't be short-term declines in values.

"It is also an average for a metropolitan area, so individual neighborhoods and houses could behave differently," he said, perhaps considerably so.

Likelihood of lower home prices in each market in two years.
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 95.5%
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla. 92.2%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla. 91.9%
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla. 91.1%
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. 88.1%
Fort Worth <1%
Dallas <1%
Pittsburgh <1%
Houston <1%
San Antonio <1%