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3 Issues Facing Today's Real Estate Market

by Christie Cannon

3 Issues Facing Today’s Real Estate Market

3 Issues Facing Today’s Real Estate Market | MyKCM

Last week, the National Association of Real Estate Editors (NAREE) held their 52nd Annual Journalism Conference in Las Vegas, NV. Among the many highly anticipated sessions was one called “Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate™,” given by Joseph Nahas, Jr., Chair of the Counselors of Real Estate & Senior Vice President of Equus Capital Partners. 

The Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) “is an international organization of high profile property professionals which include principals of prominent real estate, financial, legal, and accounting firms as well as recognized leaders of government and academia.” 

Their annual “top 10” list spans any and all issues that could have an impact on the real estate market. This year, the list was broken up into “Current” and “Long-Term Issues.”

Today we’re going to focus on three of the five “Current” issues with a brief explanation of their impacts on the housing market today!

E-Commerce & Logistics

With promises of 2-day shipping no matter where you live, we are benefiting more now than ever before from the speed and ease-of-use of online retailers like Amazon. These e-retailers haven’t changed whether or not we buy certain items, but rather HOW we buy them!

Many traditional malls or big-box stores are being repurposed as warehouses or distribution centers for online retailers so that they can get their products out faster.

A Look to the Future: “Developers who are including experiences into their locations are the ones who will succeed. It’s about the experience and gaining something over just going to buy a product.”

Generational Change & Demographics

By now we’ve all heard that the millennial generation is the largest yet, just by sheer volume. The largest group of millennials turns 30 years-old in 2020. The average first-time homebuying age is between 30 and 32, depending on marital status. Real estate professionals will be inundated with more and more buyers as the years roll on. Nahas commented on this in his presentation, saying that,

“Too many developers have become dependent on making decisions based on baby boomer’s preferences.

The 75 million millennials are coming, and they will influence real estate and commerce even faster than the baby boomers in the 50s and 60s.”

Interest Rates & the Economy

The interest rate that you secure for your mortgage is a big factor in your monthly housing cost and in how much you ultimately pay for your home. According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, rates rose to 4.62% on a 30-year fixed rate loan last week.

The Federal Reserve also raised the federal funds rate for the second time this year. If unemployment continues to be at or near record lows, two more hikes are likely to come later this year.

Nahas added,

“Rising rates can be good and bad for the economy. Bad for borrowing money with additional costs, but good to control inflation and help grow the economy at a moderate pace.”

Bottom Line

If you are planning on buying and/or selling a home this year, let’s get together to help you navigate the conditions in your market and set you up for success.

 

 

Christie Cannon | REALTOR
The Christie Cannon Team
Keller Williams Realty Frisco
972-215-7747

www.ChristieCannon.com

4 Reasons to Sell This Winter

by Christie Cannon

Some Highlights:

  • Buyer demand continues to outpace the supply of homes for sale which means that buyers are often competing with one another for the few listings that are available!
  • Housing inventory is still under the 6-month supply needed to sustain a normal housing market.
  • Perhaps the time has come for you and your family to move on and start living the life you desire.

 

Christie Cannon | REALTOR
The Cannon Team
Keller Williams Realty Frisco
469-951-9588
www.ChristieCannon.com

 

Dallas-Fort Worth has lowest risk for home-price declines

by Christie Cannon

By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News

The latest home price risk forecast shows that Dallas-Fort Worth is overall the safest place in the country for stable home values.

The latest report by mortgage insurance company PMI Group ranked the D-FW area dead last among the 50 cities it rates for possible declines in home prices.

That means PMI is betting there is less than a 1 percent chance that average home prices here will be lower two years from now.

PMI's summer 2008 risk ranking for D-FW is similar to the insurance company's previous studies.

As in other PMI reports, the U.S. cities with the biggest run-up in home prices in recent years are at the greatest risk for losses.

During the last year, some markets have seen a significant increase in the number of existing single-family homes for sale, PMI chief economist David Berson said in the report.

"Given the magnitude of the inventory overhang, we expect national home price declines to continue into at least 2009," Mr. Berson said.

In North Texas, however, the number of pre-owned homes listed for sale has declined during the last year.

Although PMI Group's report about D-FW home prices should be encouraging, Mr. Berson said that doesn't mean there won't be short-term declines in values.

"It is also an average for a metropolitan area, so individual neighborhoods and houses could behave differently," he said, perhaps considerably so.

Likelihood of lower home prices in each market in two years.
GREATEST RISK
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 95.5%
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, Fla. 92.2%
West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, Fla. 91.9%
Orlando-Kissimmee, Fla. 91.1%
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. 88.1%
LOWEST RISK
Fort Worth <1%
Dallas <1%
Pittsburgh <1%
Houston <1%
San Antonio <1%
SOURCE: PMI Group.

Report: Dallas-Fort Worth home prices least likely to drop

by Christie Cannon

 

Report: Dallas-Fort Worth home prices least likely to drop

07:30 AM CST on Wednesday, January 16, 2008

By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News

Dallas-Fort Worth's housing market is the least likely of any in the country to see a decrease in home values, a new report confirms.

At the same time, the chances of a house price decline rose in almost four out of five U.S. markets, according to a report released Tuesday by mortgage insurance firm PMI Group.

Dallas and Fort Worth ranked dead last in PMI Group's latest forecast of cities with the biggest chance for a home price shakeout.

Analysts with the California-based company estimate that Dallas-Fort Worth has less than a 1 percent chance of marked home price drops in the next two years.

By comparison, cities in California, Nevada and Arizona have more than an 80 percent likelihood of falling residential values.

"We're seeing an increasingly polarized market," PMI economist David Berson said in a news release.

"The risk that home prices will be lower in two years has increased for many of the largest cities in the nation, although areas that saw only moderate home price gains during the 2002-to-2005 period still generally have low risks of price declines," he said.

That's certainly the case in Dallas-Fort Worth, where home price appreciation during the last five years has been a fraction of the national average.

"Because Texas did not participate in the double-digit home price gains in the first half of the decade, it doesn't have to take the great pain of the areas that are compensating for that now," Mr. Berson said in an interview.

Now that the housing sector is in a slump, home values in North Texas have been relatively flat while they are falling in many other major U.S. cities.

In 2007, the median price of homes sold through the North Texas Realtors' multiple listing service was up 1 percent from 2006.

Texas markets – including the D-FW area – were also less affected by investors who ran up prices in some cities, Mr. Berson said.

And most Texas cities are outpacing the rest of the country in overall economics, he said.

"The state economy is doing pretty well, and job growth is above the national average," Mr. Berson said.

"It's quite likely Texas will be doing better than the national average for the foreseeable future," he said.

The D-FW area has gotten high marks in the PMI risk report before.

And other national surveys show that North Texas' housing market is outperforming those in the rest of the country.

Even so, pre-owned home sales were down about 8 percent last year, and sales of new homes fell about 17 percent in 2007.

Foreclosure rates also continue to rise.

Analysts are therefore keeping a close eye on D-FW home prices for signs of deterioration.

"I can't argue with the PMI risk assessment, but it doesn't mean that it still couldn't happen – just not as likely as elsewhere," said Dr. James Gaines, an economist with Texas A&M University's Real Estate Center. "So far, most Texas markets are doing well.

"The metroplex probably will do well to have positive overall appreciation, but pockets within the metroplex will have a rough time for a while."

Indeed, Mr. Berson said, the Texas housing market isn't bulletproof.

"There are no sure things," he said.

"It's possible that some parts of Texas will see some declines in the near term."

But overall, the outlook for the local housing market is good, he said.

 

HOW RISKY IS THE HOUSING MARKET?

 

Markets with the most and least risk of a home price decline, based on price appreciation, economic growth and affordability according to PMI Group, one of the country's largest mortgage insurance firms. An index of 100 means there is a 100 percent chance of home prices falling in the next two years.

 

MOST RISKY

 

Riverside, Calif. 94

Las Vegas 89

Phoenix 83

Santa Ana, Calif. 81

Los Angeles 79

 

LEAST RISKY

 

Fort Worth Less than 1

Dallas Less than 1

Pittsburgh Less than 1

Houston Less than 1

San Antonio Less than 1

SOURCE: PMI Group

 

Dallas home prices rise among few U.S. gains

by Christie Cannon
Dallas home prices rise among few U.S. gains
Industry experts say foreclosures a concern
11:15 AM CDT on Thursday, August 30, 2007
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
stevebrown@dallasnews.com
Dallas is one of the few cities in the nation where home prices are still rising slightly, according to a national housing survey released Tuesday.
While U.S. home prices fell 3.2 percent in the second quarter, Standard & Poor's quarterly housing index reports that the Dallas metropolitan area was one of only five markets in the country with price gains.
Of the 20 cities it surveys, only Dallas , Seattle , Portland , Ore. , Atlanta and Charlotte , N.C. , had annual gains in home prices in the second quarter.
But it's hard to say whether the 1.6 percent gain in Dallas home prices is sustainable, industry experts say.
Dr. James Gaines of Texas A&M University 's Real Estate Center said "In a lot of places in Dallas , home prices are still going up by double digits.” In other neighborhoods, they are actually falling. But across the board, the gainers outweigh the losers," he said.
As mortgage lenders tighten loan requirements, a significant number of potential homebuyers have been locked out of the market. That could hurt the volume of sales in North Texas in the months ahead.
"It may take awhile to sort out" what's happening in the mortgage market, Dr. William Brueggeman, director of SMU's real estate department said. "There is going to be a little pain and suffering here, but nothing like we are seeing in other markets."
Fewer subprime woes
Dr. Gaines says that even with the soaring foreclosure rates, there have been fewer subprime mortgage problems here.
"The mortgage shakeout is affecting other parts of the country a lot more than it is Texas ," he said. "We didn't have anywhere near the level or magnitude" of subprime loans that other markets did.
But that doesn't mean that Dallas-Fort Worth homeowners aren't going to be hammered with a steady diet of bad news about the U.S. housing market. Those negative reports weigh on consumer psychology.

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Photo of Christie Cannon Real Estate
Christie Cannon
Keller Williams Realty
4783 Preston Road #300
Frisco TX 75034
972-215-7747
Fax: 214-853-4774
Keller Williams Frisco - The Christie Cannon Team - http://www.christiecannon.com

 

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